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9 Predictions for the Year 2050

Highlights: in the year 2050, we still haven't met the aliens, Zoom is like Myspace, and American football goes away. There's much more in the post.

Last year I read Remembrance of Earth's Past, a science fiction trilogy by Chinese author Liu Cixin. The total length runs to more than 1,300 pages, but I loved it so much I would have kept reading if there was another book in the series.

The story has several themes and takes place across tens of thousands of years. Repeatedly, scientists and political leaders living in one point of history are trying to plan for something that will occur hundreds of years later, long after they'll be dead.

It turns out that trying to predict the future is tough!

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A Love Letter to Trump Supporters ❤️

john-silliman-yoZWr8iQ93o-unsplash I’d like to speak to any of my readers who have supported the current U.S. president in the past, or who are planning to do so again this year. There aren’t a lot of you, but you tend to be very vocal—and believe it or not, I’ve been trying to understand where you’re coming from.

I wrote and rewrote this post at least three times before figuring out what I wanted to say. I knew that if I insulted you, you wouldn’t listen—which is fair, because I don’t tend to listen to people who insult me either.

One of you wrote to me recently to say that I must think everyone who supports Trump is a moron. But that’s not true, I replied. I think a lot of them know exactly what they’re getting with their candidate.

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The Change of Loss

"It feels very old-timey and theatrical to say 'This experience has changed me' but still things do happen that change us. When those things happen we can’t go back in time, we can only go forward or face the uncertain ambivalence between the past, present and the future."

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“I’m not optimistic because our problems are small…”

Why build a clock that lasts for 10,000 years? Because the future is always getting shorter and shorter.

“Everybody was doing things faster and faster. I needed to slow down, stretch out, and think on a different time scale.

Any engineer wants to build something that lasts. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy to build. From the beginning I wanted to make a little model of the clock, and then make a bigger one and a bigger one. I finally realized the clock couldn’t go in a building—it had to be in a mountain.

I’m very optimistic about the future. I’m not optimistic because our problems are small … I’m optimistic because our capacity to deal with problems is great."

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The New, New Economy: How the World of Online Publishing Is Changing, and Why You Should Care

4383221264_0efdfb700c_z For the past eight years I’ve made a good living through online publishing. I’ve shared much of the journey along the way, but I first documented the overall process in a manifesto, 279 Days to Overnight Success.

This manifesto went on to have a life of its own, thanks to the generous sharing of readers. Every single day—seven years later!—I hear from people who have found it online and enjoyed it.

And guess what? I think at least some of the lessons I taught so fervently back then are wrong.

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Warning Signs That Your Life Lacks a Consistent Vision


You don’t know what to do at the start of the day.

Someone else or some other external events determine how you schedule and spend your time. Sure, you eventually jump into something, but your priorities are not your own.

You are pre-occupied with tactics and short-term opportunities.

Instead of seeing the long-term goal, you see only 2-3 steps ahead. You are a tactician instead of a strategist, in other words.

You are disillusioned with the things that used to bring you joy.

What once made you happy is no longer sufficient. You do the same things you used to, but without the same feelings of anticipation and enjoyment.

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Running In Your Mind

“They say there’s no harm in daydreaming, but there is.” -Charlaine Harris When I run, I wish I could say I was fully focused on my surroundings. I live within running distance of a waterfront with half a dozen bridges, a beautiful (although steep) inactive volcano, and if I go a bit further, several nice…

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The Starving Artist Solves the Problem

Paul was an artist, painting in several mediums and styles. He lived in a Northwestern city known for its love of the arts, if not always its ambition. As Paul grew up, his family and teachers encouraged him to pursue art as a career instead of just a hobby. Paul was not especially organized, as we shall see, but this idea suited him well ...

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Your One Place

Here’s a fun game to play: think about one place in the world that you’d like to visit someday. You don’t have to make a long list, just think of one single place.

Even including people who don’t travel that much, most of us can think of somewhere we’d like to see before we die.

There are a couple of easy rules for this game:

1) You only get one place

2) It has to be somewhere you haven’t been yet

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